Oct

31

Daily Market Wrap 31OCT07

October 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Some quick thoughts:

–A lot of people are clamoring for a dollar rally here, but currency markets are controlled by more than just speculation. There are too many long term capital flows to be accounted for. It is worth noting that while the U.S. economic outlook still doesn’t look positive, inflation is once again creeping higher in Europe. The EU central bank may well go the opposite direction from the Fed, which could bring interest rate parity […]

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Oct

31

Covered HZO at $14.21

October 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment

I decided to cover my short in HZO at the close. Earnings come out tomorrow morning and I just didn’t like the way the stock was acting. I don’t really have much of a fundamental reason for closing the trade, but the stock’s ability to rebound from its lows into the close had me worried about the potential for the company to beat estimates. My portfolio has posted some nice gains over the last few days, and […]

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Oct

31

Adding a small position in BTJ

October 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment

This afternoon I added a small position in BTJ at $43.20. I’m probably chasing a bit, but the long term story and forward PE make this a very compelling investment and I didn’t want to miss the boat completely. The huge surge in oil after the Fed rate cut was a remarkably strong reaction, and we are now looking at triple digits. Even though triple digits probably won’t hold, that is important for expanding the trading range […]

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Oct

31

Taking stock of the reaction to the Fed rate cut

October 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment

A few quick thoughts following the rate cut:

–Look at Barrick Gold fly. Gold is being driven by the dollar, which will continue downward now that rate differentials are not in the dollar’s favor. Maybe I should have held EGO longer, but I still have a big gold position in CGLD.OB and I’m sticking to that.

–STV is flying. I added a moderate amount at $39.99 after seeing it start to heat up. Are Chinese stocks about to […]

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Oct

31

Sold EGO

October 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment

This afternoon I decided to sell my small holding in EGO at $6.92 in the wake of the Fed rate cut. With the rather hawkish statement from the Fed and one dissenter, we have significantly raised the risk of a correction in gold in the short term. I’m not willing to be against gold at present, but I want to be a little less long here.

Oct

31

Taking partial profits in KFED

October 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment

This afternoon I decided to take profits and cover half of my position in KFED at $12.69. The stock has gotten pegged in the last few days, and on the eve of what will probably be a Fed rate cut, there is the chance of a short term rally in the wake of the meeting. Given this possibility, I would like to lock in some of my gains here and potentially sell the stock again at higher prices.


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Oct

31

Adding a small position in SWSI

October 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment

In keeping with the natural gas theme, I purchased a small position in Superior Well Services (SWSI) this afternoon at $20.49. I continue to like the way that natural gas is trading ahead of tomorrow’s inventory report, and U.S. based oil and gas service companies just look to be too cheap here. If natgas drilling revives, we are going to see some serious moves in these stocks. I still want to wait on the actual producers until […]

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Oct

31

Adding a bit of NGS

October 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment

This morning I added a small position in NGS at $18.52. I stated yesterday that I thought we were seeing interesting signs from the natural gas market, and today we saw even more interesting action as natural gas surged in parallel with oil in the wake of a bullish oil inventory report. What I found particularly interesting here was the fact that natgas breeched the technically significant $8.25 mark twice so far today. Although it remains to […]

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Oct

30

Daily Market Wrap 30OCT07

October 30, 2007 | 2 Comments

We’ve seen a fair bit of volatility over the last two days as people posture for the Fed decision tomorrow. That stands in stark contrast with previous Fed meetings over the past year, and it might not signal good things. Here’s what is on my mind:

–The VIX is higher today than yesterday. Not surprising given the market closed down, but it has been rising over the last few days. Could we shoot back up to 30ish […]

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Oct

29

Daily Market Wrap 29OCT07

October 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment

The market felt like it lost a bit of momentum in the last half hour. We are once again pushing up toward old highs, but looking at the fundamental situation, one has to wonder whether that is in fact justified. As I detailed in my earlier post today, there are certainly risks that need to taken into account. Since I already detailed these concerns, I’m going to run down a few of my positions.

CGLD.OB–Another successive new high. […]

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