Dec

31

2007: The year in review

December 31, 2007 | 1 Comment

As the closing bell rings on 2007, I figure that it’s time to quickly take stock of my achievements this year. So while keeping things brief, here are some of my thoughts.

Overall return: This year proved to be an incredible year for my combined accounts, which ballooned from about $26,000 at the start of the year to just above $59,000 at year end. Granted, I did add about $9000 to my combined accounts throughout the course […]

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Dec

28

Daily Market Wrap 28DEC07

December 28, 2007 | 1 Comment

Key economic data: NAPM Chicago 56.6 vs 52.3 est; new home sales 647,000 vs 720,000 est

Key market moves: stocks mostly unchanged; ten year treasury yield down 10 basis points to 4.10%; gold up $11 to $842; oil down 60 cents to $96; natgas up 2% after inventories; soybeans down 3% to 326; bond insurers drop 14% after Buffett enters the space; gold stocks surge as gold approaches a new high

Commentary: First, the economic data. Frankly, the new home sales […]

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Dec

28

Covered MS, HZO, sold SPY Jan 146 puts

December 28, 2007 | Leave a Comment

This afternoon I decided to pull the plug on the bulk of my short positions by covering MS at $52.96, HZO at $15.17, and selling my SPY Jan 146 puts at a premium of $1.94. By about 3.20pm it became clear that today’s weakness was not going to accelerate significantly in the last hour of the trading day, and therefore, I decided to take some tax losses in my MS short. A bit of patience allowed me to […]

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Dec

27

Daily Market Wrap 27DEC07

December 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Key economic data: durable goods orders up 0.1% M/M, far less than 3% estimate; jobless claims 349k vs 343k estimate; consumer confidence 88.6 vs. 86.5 estimate; oil inventories down 3.3 million barrels, at the top end of expectations

Key market moves: Dow and S&P drop 1.4%, Nasdaq down 1.7%; oil up 65 cents to $96.65; gold up $2 to $832; selling mostly moderate and broadbased as far as sectors go

Commentary: First, one small adjustment to the portfolio. I increased my […]

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Dec

26

Daily Market Wrap 26DEC07

December 26, 2007 | Leave a Comment

I’m going to jump right into some quick thoughts for tonight. First, I’ve updated my holdings so that they are now current. I’ve made a few minor moves so far this week, but nothing that has really affected the portfolio. On to some thoughts and questions I have for 2008.

First, I have to say that I’ve got energy on my mind. For the last three or four months we’ve been screaming about recession, but a lot […]

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Dec

20

Daily Market Wrap 20DEC07

December 20, 2007 | Leave a Comment

I’m really busy tonight, so I’m going to just provide some quick thoughts and summarize my trading activity. My read on today’s trading is that we really seem to be searching for upside, but the upside appears to be too minimal to play with any conviction (with the possible exception of tech). Economic data was very poor today, with jobless claims trending higher, leading indicators lower, and the Philly Fed survey showing a contraction.

On to my trades…

AYSI.OB–I sold […]

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Dec

19

Daily Market Wrap 19DEC07

December 19, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Key economic data: oil inventories see 7.6M barrel draw, supplies now almost 9% below last year’s levels; Fed auction bid to cover 3:1, interest rate at 4.65%

Key market moves: major indices trade in tight range, end basically flat; gold basically flat at $805; oil trades up $1.50 to $91.50;

Commentary: What a boring day for trading. There really wasn’t a whole lot of profit to be had out there today, and the volume was so light it has […]

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Dec

19

Rotating down the strike on S&P puts

December 19, 2007 | Leave a Comment

This afternoon I chose to rotate half of my position in the Jan 146 puts into the Jan 140 puts. I sold the 146 puts at a premium of $4, and jumped into the $140’s at a premium of $1.91. Seeing the range we had been stuck in on the S&P (1449-1453), I decided to take small profits on the $146’s. However, when we finally broke the 1449 level, I jumped back in with the 140 […]

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Dec

19

Covered 60% of my oil short

December 19, 2007 | 1 Comment

This morning I decided to cover 60% of my oil short at $71.84. Frankly, this trade has just not worked at all so far, and oil’s stubborness to move lower is trying my patience. I had a substantial amount of capital tied up in the trade, and with the outlook for the next few days being neutral, I don’t want to tie up too much capital in one spot. While I remain bearish on oil with a […]

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Dec

19

Doubled my puts on the S&P

December 19, 2007 | 1 Comment

This morning I decided to double my position in the Jan 146 puts for the SPY at a premium of $3.55. My decision was predicated on the fact that as I was watching my trading screen, MBI dropped off a cliff. At the time I didn’t know the reason, but it was clear that something substantial had happened. It has now been announced that S&P has downgraded ACA’s credit rating to CCC, and put MBI and ABK […]

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