Jan

31

Daily Market Wrap 31JAN08

January 31, 2008 | 2 Comments

Key economic data: Personal income up 0.5% M/M, spending up 0.1%, both 0.1% ahead of expectations; jobless claims 375k vs 318k est; NAPM Chicago 51.5 vs. 52 expected; employment cost index up 0.8% Q/Q natgas inventories -274Bcf

Key market moves: major indices move 1.7% higher on substantive volume; 10 year yield sinks 9 basis points to 3.64% but 30 year yields barely budge, yield curve gets steeper; oil down 58 cents to $91.75; gold up $2 to $928;

Commentary: Well, I […]

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Jan

31

Taking on more risk

January 31, 2008 | Leave a Comment

This morning I decided to make a few moves to take on a bit more risk on the long side. From where I sit, it looks like the market is having a minor freakout over the jobless claims numbers, and I don’t think it is warranted. I’m viewing this as a final shakeout of the last few sellers before we can go challenge the resistance levels up ahead. Therefore, I made several moves this morning.

Sells

HZO puts–I sold […]

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Jan

31

Daily Market Wrap 30JAN08

January 31, 2008 | 2 Comments

Key economic data: Fed cuts rates 50 basis points, fed funds rate now at 3%; ADP employment survey shows 130k jobs added in the private sector in Jan; preliminary GDP up 0.6% for Q4, vs. 1.2% est; price index up 2.6% vs. 2.5% est; oil inventories up 3.6 million barrels

Key market moves: major indices lose a third of a percent after giving up gains in the last hour; oil closes up 11 cents to $91.75; gold sheds $4.50 to […]

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Jan

30

Bought MOS

January 30, 2008 | 2 Comments

This afternoon I bought a small position in MOS at $90.59 after the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This is in keeping with my thoughts yesterday that a 50 point cut provides support for the inflation thesis, and MOS is poised to benefit from agricultural inflation.

However, having watched the reversal this afternoon, I am not all that enthused with the market action following the cut. I’m still trying to discern the near term […]

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Jan

29

Daily Market Wrap 29JAN07

January 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Key economic data: durable goods much stronger than expected, up 5.2% M/M vs. 1.6% est; weekly retail sales up 0.4% Y/Y, consumer confidence drops to 87.9, slightly better than 87.5 est

Key market moves: markets up modestly, with Dow leading the way to a 0.8% gain, S&P up 0.6%, Nasdaq up 0.4%; ten yr treasury yields jump 7 basis pts to 3.66%; gold closes at $930, more or less unchanged from last night; oil up 65 cents to $91.64; aluminum […]

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Jan

29

New position in CHL, adding to HRBN

January 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment

This morning I opened a new position in CHL, buying a small stake at $75.39. This is continuing the strategy of buying a few high quality growth names near the bottom of the selloff. I also decided to add to my stake in HRBN, using today’s weakness to increase the position by 40% at $21.35. I continue to be impressed by the strength of this stock throughout the selloff of the last few weeks, and I believe […]

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Jan

28

Daily Market Wrap 28JAN08

January 28, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Key economic data: new home sales 604k vs. 645k

Key market moves: major indices up, S&P up 1.75%, Dow up 1.5%, Nasdaq up 1%; oil up modestly to close at $91; gold soars $16 to new record, closes above $927; natgas up 1.2% to 8.08; pork bellies up 2.8% to 88.25, lean hogs up 1.9% to 57.25; sugar up 4% to $12.42

Commentary: Every since the turn, this market continues to perform very well. Market internals have been strong, and […]

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Jan

28

Sold 10% of RIC, increased CHCG position by 50%

January 28, 2008 | Leave a Comment

This afternoon I decided to sell just a bit of my position in RIC at $3.24. After taking a harder look at my portfolio, I was getting a bit overzealous with position sizing, and felt that cutting the position down slightly would give my portfolio a bigger margin of safety against volatility. It continues to be my biggest holding and I continue to like the stock into fourth quarter earnings, which I expect will take the market by […]

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Jan

28

New positions in MCD, TKC

January 28, 2008 | Leave a Comment

This morning I added two small new positions in MCD and TKC. As readers might have noticed, I’m using the market turmoil to establish positions in a number of quality names with bigger market capitalizations. My buys of PKX, SGR, and now MCD definitely fit into that category, and while everyone else is fretting about recession, I’m attempting to plan for the post-recession. We’ve already made plenty of money on put positions on the S&P, and frankly, […]

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Jan

25

Selling half my VGZ position

January 25, 2008 | Leave a Comment

This morning I decided to sell half of my position in VGZ at $4.68, effectively reversing my purchase of yesterday and taking 31 cents of profit out of the stock in just one day. Essentially, by doubling the position yesterday and flipping the position today, I have effectively lowered my basis while maintaining the same size position. I continue to like VGZ, but it is somewhat speculative, so managing the size of the position in essential. All […]

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