Nov

1

Covering KFED, rotating money to HZO and BC

November 1, 2007 | Leave a Comment

This morning I decided to cover my short in KFED at $12.70. I still believe there is going to be problems for KFED going forward, but I see bigger opportunities elsewhere at the moment, so I want to free up some capital.

I’ve taken the proceeds from my KFED trade to opportunistically enter a new short position in HZO at $14.97. I covered the position yesterday in anticipation of bump on good earnings, and that is just what happened. […]

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Oct

26

Reviewing the Brunswick Conference Call

October 26, 2007 | Leave a Comment

I obviously got a bit burned in my short of Brunswick by today’s earnings announcement, and I’m now sitting on a minor loss. However, this was not unexpected, as I wrote of the possibility of this exact scenario yesterday in my daily market wrap. In fact, more important to me was the conference call, and therefore, I am going to summarize my thoughts on the conference call below.

–As far as units go, boat sales were very bad, down […]

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Oct

22

Sold SDTH, increased my short in BC

October 22, 2007 | Leave a Comment

This afternoon I decided to take a small daytrading profit in SDTH by selling the position at $7.71. We’ve had a pretty good rally intraday, but it is showing some signs of weakness, and so I am going to free up more capital here to give me the ability to add if the market goes lower.

I also decided to increase the size of my short in BC by 33% at $20.15. The midday bounce in the stock seems […]

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Oct

19

Selling sizable long positions, going short, and buying gold

October 19, 2007 | 6 Comments

Today’s market is just plain ugly, and I am beginning to have serious worries about the economy flipping into a recession. In fact, the more I listen to companies guidance (CAT, UNP, etc). In fact, I am willing to bet that the U.S. is already slipping into recession, but we have yet to actually see it in the numbers. The way that both the stock and bond market have acted in the last few sessions is telling […]

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Oct

18

Two new shorts: BC and KFED

October 18, 2007 | Leave a Comment

This afternoon I decided to add small positions in two new shorts: BC at $20.84 and KFED at $13.96. KFED is a former short holding of mine, and my thesis here is exactly the same as it was when I originally shorted the stock earlier this year. I am not going to review the whole story, but my basic thesis is that this California bank has an abnormally low provision for loan losses, and that provision is more […]

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