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Daily Market Wrap 12FEB08

Thomas Kelly — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 01:43:39 +0000

Key economic data: retail sales for the week up 0.6% Y/Y

Key market moves: Dow up 1.1%, S&P up 0.75%, Nasdaq unchanged; oil down 81 cents to $92.78; gold down $15 to $911; lumber down 2.3% to 228

Commentary: As far as the equity markets go, we’re still just sort of sputtering along with modest volume and a tendency to sell rallies. Looking at the internals and the slow drift downward in the VIX, there are definitely some positive signs out [...]

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Sold HZO puts, adding more CHCG

Thomas Kelly — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 18:29:17 +0000

This morning I decided to sell my remaining position in HZO puts at a premium of $1.95. After seeing this quarter’s results and the reaction to the numbers, I’m beginning to think that while the fundamentals remain bad here, the bulk of the downside is already priced in.

Additionally, I continued to add to my position in CHCG, increasing the position by about 30% at $2.69. I’m now beginning to really stake a claim here, simply because [...]

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Daily Market Wrap 11FEB08

Thomas Kelly — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 03:57:36 +0000

Key economic data: none

Key market moves: major indices up 0.5%; oil up $1.80 to just below $94 on Chavez rhetoric threatening to cut off supplies to the US; gold up $4 to $926; natgas jumps 3% to $8.53; financials suffer, AIG sheds 11% after auditor questions valuation of assets

Commentary: Today was a pretty quiet day outside of the energy complex, but overall, I thought the market showed pretty good strength by closing more or less at the highs and sloughing [...]

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Doubling positions in BBSI, USO puts

Thomas Kelly — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 18:28:01 +0000

This afternoon I decided to double my positions in BBSI and USO puts, taking advantage of the big price declines in both. Frankly, I am buying these staffing companies largely because of their balance sheets, and BBSI has a very nice balance sheet that inspires confidence to buy the dips. I doubled my holding at a price of $16.05, effectively bringing my basis down under $17. Still a small position and I anticipate continuing to add on [...]

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Taking partial profits in NUAN, SGR

Thomas Kelly — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 18:19:28 +0000

This afternoon I decided to take partial profits in NUAN and SGR on the basis that the stocks have gotten nice 3% pops, but pops are meant to be sold in this market. Therefore, I sold half my position in NUAN at $16.25, and sold 60% of my position in SGR at $56.00. Nuance has earnings due out on Monday, and the way this market has been, I think taking some off is prudent and allows me flexibility [...]

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Daily Market Wrap 07FEB08

Thomas Kelly — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 00:19:54 +0000

Key economic data: Bank of England cuts rates 25 basis points to 5.25%; ECB keeps rates at 4%, signals possible future easing; jobless claims 358k vs. 343k est; pending home sales index down 1.5% M/M; natgas inventories decline 200 Bcf, in line with 5 yr avg; consumer credit increases $4.5B in Dec, less than $7.5B est

Key market moves: indices end with modest 0.6% gains; long bond yields rocket, 10 year jumps 12 basis point to 3.74% after tepid demand for [...]

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Cutting exposure to the inflation trade and switching to value

Thomas Kelly — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 22:30:53 +0000

Today I spent the bulk of the trading day cutting my exposure to the inflation trade that I’d put on. My baseline reasoning is that oil has been the key driver behind inflation, but today’s oil inventory report was very bearish for the market and resulted in some technical damage as oil dropped below the $87 support level intraday. Although oil barely managed to climb back above $87, I believe that the technical damage has been done, and [...]

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Daily Market Wrap 05FEB08

Thomas Kelly — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 03:57:15 +0000

Key economic data: ISM services index 41.9 vs. 53 est

Key market moves: all major indices plunge 3%; oil down $1.60 to $88.41; gold down $20 to $890; sugar down 2.4% to 11.88

Commentary: You know, that had to be the least scary 3% down day I’ve seen in my trading career. Perhaps it was the fact that the intraday swing was not as large as we’d seen in the past, but it seemed like investors took a collective yawn [...]

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Dancing to the music with a few portfolio moves

Thomas Kelly — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 22:50:10 +0000

I made a few smaller trades today to adjust the mix of the portfolio, and I will go down the list and detail my thought process.

Sells

MCD–I sold MCD at $53.82. Basically, I view this one as potentially $3 down if the market continues to weaken, and probably only $3 upside if we find a bottom. I don’t like even odds, so I’d rather raise some funds and sell.

VGZ–I sold half my shares at $4.59. I doubled the [...]

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Daily Market Wrap 04FEB08

Thomas Kelly — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 00:49:31 +0000

Key economic data: job cut report shows announced layoff jump to 75k in January from 45k in Dec; factory orders up 2.3% for Dec, in line with expectations

Key market moves: Dow, S&P drop 1%, Nasdaq down 1.2%; treasury yields rise across the entire spectrum, 10 year jumps 5 basis points to 3.65%; oil up $1 to $90; gold down $4 to $909; soybeans up 3% to 1326, corn up 2% to 510.50; coffee up 2.6% to 142.75, lumber up [...]

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